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Castrol predictor shows the five times champions will lift the trophy again
Two of the world's most passionate footballing nations, Spain and Brazil, are favourites to go head to head in the 2010 FIFA World CupTM Final according to the Castrol Predictor, a new tool launched today by 2010 FIFA World CupTM sponsor Castrol.
While the UEFA Euro 2008 winners, Spain, seem to be most bookmakers, favourite going into the tournament, the Castrol Predictor shows that they actually have only a 16.1% chance of glory and are second favourites behind the five time winners Brazil, with a 23.6% chance of success.
Castrol has applied the same expertise they apply to the development of their oils to create the Castrol Predictor, using objective analysis and highly advanced technology to offer unique insights into winning performances.
Castrol's analysis shows that the best placed teams to qualify from Group G, the so called "Group of Death", are Castrol Predictor tournament and group favourites Brazil (91.7%) and Portugal (52.4%). Carlos Queiroz's men cannot afford to be complacent as they are almost inseparable from their group rivals and African favourites Ivory Coast, who have a 50.5% chance of reaching the last 16.
Current world champions Italy, will have their work cut out to mirror their triumph of 2006, with the Azzurri ranked 7th favourites to reclaim their crown and given only a 3.6% chance of victory. One Italian that is in contention to lift the famous trophy is England manager Fabio Capello, who will look to guide his team to their first World Cup Final since 1966.
England are third favourites to go all the way, with the Castrol Predictor giving them a 10.4% chance of success, however, Capello's men will be weary of penalty shoot-out heartbreak, given their poor record when it comes to spot-kicks.
The Castrol Predictor has been created by the same team of Castrol Performance Analysts behind the Castrol Rankings and Castrol Index.
It measures past team and player performance and works out the attack and defence ratings of each nation. Then, by simulating the tournament more than 100,000 times and taking into account the draw groupings, Castrol has calculated each team's chances of progression through the FIFA World CupTM group stages and ultimately, of winning the world's most famous trophy.
The Castrol Predictor will be updated throughout the 2010 FIFA World CupTM on castrolfootball.com, so fans can see the impact of each and every match result on their team's chances.
The Castrol Predictor is fully interactive, letting fans find out how they will get on in their group, which teams they are most and least likely to meet at each round, and whether they'll face a grudge match with arch rivals.
Castrol Ambassador Marcel Desailly says: "I am surprised that the Castrol Predictor shows Brazil as favourites because I really thought Spain were the team to beat this time. I will be hoping that my home nation Ghana does better than predicted as the Castrol Predictor only gives them a 0.2% chance of success! It's great being able to look at the teams, predicted success in this way and I'm sure it will be a talking point for football fans everywhere."
Castrol Senior Vice-President Mike Johnson added: "We want to offer real insight to football fans around the world and the Castrol Predictor does exactly that, offering fans a new and meaningful way of following their team through the 2010 FIFA World CupTM. As passionate football fans we are looking forward with great excitement to using the Castrol Predictor throughout the tournament next year."
Table shows each team's chances of progression to each round of the FIFA World Cup based on the Castrol Predictor, visit castrolfootball.com for more information.
| Team |
Progress to Last 16 |
Progress to Quarter Finals |
Progress to Semi Finals |
Progress to Final |
Winning the Final |
| Brazil |
91.7% |
67.7% |
48.8% |
35.0% |
23.6% |
| Spain |
88.1% |
57.0% |
39.6% |
26.7% |
16.1% |
| England |
90.2% |
58.7% |
37.3% |
19.2% |
10.4% |
| Netherlands |
79.8% |
56.5% |
29.3% |
18.1% |
10.1% |
| Argentina |
79.1% |
49.7% |
29.4% |
14.9% |
7.5% |
| Germany |
74.4% |
43.9% |
25.4% |
12.1% |
5.8% |
| Italy |
84.3% |
43.0% |
17.6% |
8.7% |
3.6% |
| Uruguay |
61.5% |
32.9% |
16.2% |
6.5% |
2.7% |
| France |
59.0% |
31.2% |
15.3% |
6.4% |
2.6% |
| Usa |
73.0% |
36.0% |
17.3% |
6.5% |
2.4% |
| Portugal |
52.4% |
22.5% |
10.9% |
5.0% |
1.8% |
| Paraguay |
73.3% |
31.1% |
10.5% |
4.4% |
1.5% |
| Denmark |
49.5% |
26.5% |
9.5% |
4.2% |
1.5% |
| Ivory Coast |
50.5% |
21.2% |
10.0% |
4.4% |
1.5% |
| Australia |
48.2% |
21.6% |
10.0% |
3.7% |
1.3% |
| Mexico |
49.5% |
23.6% |
10.2% |
3.7% |
1.3% |
| Serbia |
47.9% |
20.9% |
9.4% |
3.3% |
1.1% |
| Nigeria |
47.3% |
21.5% |
9.0% |
3.1% |
1.1% |
| Greece |
46.1% |
20.1% |
7.9% |
2.5% |
0.8% |
| Japan |
38.5% |
18.8% |
6.0% |
2.4% |
0.7% |
| Chile |
40.2% |
11.8% |
4.7% |
1.8% |
0.5% |
| Cameroon |
32.3% |
14.5% |
4.2% |
1.5% |
0.4% |
| Switzerland |
36.9% |
9.9% |
3.7% |
1.3% |
0.4% |
| South Africa |
30.0% |
11.4% |
4.0% |
1.2% |
0.3% |
| Honduras |
34.7% |
9.1% |
3.3% |
1.1% |
0.3% |
| Ghana |
29.5% |
10.1% |
3.5% |
0.9% |
0.2% |
| South Korea |
27.6% |
9.6% |
2.9% |
0.7% |
0.2% |
| Slovakia |
38.8% |
9.3% |
1.6% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
| Slovenia |
21.0% |
5.4% |
1.3% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
| Algeria |
15.9% |
3.5% |
0.8% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
| North Korea |
5.4% |
0.8% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
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